Abduction

Introduced by Charles Sanders Peirce, abduction is a way of logical reasoning. The form of reasoning is as follows:

• There is a surprising fact C
• If H is true, the existence of C is natural and reasonable
• Thus hypothesis H exists

Relationship and difference among three logical reasonings

Including abduction, there are mainly three types of logical reasoning, i.e. deduction, induction and abduction. There relationship of three types of reasoning in scientific discoveries is as follows: one lead to a hypothesis through abduction, then one logically prove it using deduction, and finally they prove the applicability of facts through empirical research (induction).

Following mathematical logical rule, deduction is strict and strong reasoning. Using deduction, one can come to the conclusion from premise almost straightforwardly. There is little chance of making fallacy when one is trained to make deductive reasoning. However, using deduction only, one cannot get to the leaping conclusion such as scientific discovery and innovation.

Induction and abduction can lead to the leaping conclusion, but the big difference between them is that whereas inductive reasoning just leads to general conclusion by summing up individual facts, abductive reasoning introduces hypothesis, which is critical in scientific theory or innovation. Bertrand Russell emphasized the importance of hypothesis in criticizing excessive emphasis on induction. He said:

“Bacon's inductive method is faulty through insufficient emphasis on hypothesis. He hoped that mere orderly arrangement of data would make the right hypothesis obvious, but this is seldom the case. As a rule, the framing of hypotheses is the most difficult part of scientific work, and the part where great ability is indispensable. So far, no method has been found which would make it possible to invent hypotheses by rule. Usually some hypothesis is a necessary preliminary to the collection of facts, since the selection of facts demands some way of determining relevance. Without something of this kind, the mere multiplicity of facts is baffling.”

Bertrand Russell, A history of western philosophy (4^th printing), pp544 – 545

Conditions of abductive hypothesis

Peirce said there are four conditions in abuductive hypothesis.

• The hypothesis is the most likely one among others
• The hypothesis is simple, and using the hypothesis the facts are more simply described
• The hypothesis can be tested
• The cost of testing the hypothesis is lower than testing others

Rule of thumbs of abduction

Although the organized rule of introducing hypothesis is not in place even now, curiosity, creativity and imagination must be there. Innovators and scientists come up with new ideas from usual lives, as they don’t lose curiosity in things and find surprising facts in ordinary set-up. So, in a sense, the training to be innovative is not to lose child-like wonder. Creativity and imagination often come from the knowledge and experience in different fields.

Deductive method under the name of “logical thinking” has gained popularity in business society. Granted, deductive reasoning is prerequisite in everything, but we need to know the limitation. As computers would soon replace the role of deductive reasoning, Deduction alone is not enough to survive in 21^st century. Now is the time to learn abductive reasoning.

Reference: 「アブダクション」(Japanese)、 米盛裕二、勁草書房

Qualities of innovators

To be innovative, one has to (1) choose right issues, then (2) conceive new solutions and then (3) take actions. To choose right issues, one needs to observe and question. To come up with new solutions, one needs to associate different things and network with others. Then implement. Here I summarize five qualities of innovators in three categories.

1. Observing and questioning: choosing right issues

Observing

Innovators are good at observing things. Here, observing is not just seeing; it is the deed to find out implications. Like an anthropologist, they spend relatively long time to observe the issues. One way to be a good observer is to experience the situation. This way you get much information in very short time. That may be why many innovators love to do field studies.

Questioning

Innovators often ask questions, especially “why” and “what if” sort of ones. They often question “the unquestionable”, as Steve Jobs asked “why personal computers need a fun?” When you continue to question the issues, you’ll probably get to the essence of issues.

2. Associating and networking: coming up with new solutions

Associational thinking

The art of innovation is connecting different things. According to Einstein, it is “combinational play”. Pattern of associational thinking is said to be: substitute, combine, adopt, magnify, minimize, modify, put to other use, eliminate, reverse and rearrange.

There are some tips in associational thinking.

• Forced association: use a problem and random idea to make a possible association
• Use persona of others
• Metaphor: e.g. “What if TV watching is like magazine reading? (it was the origin of TIVO)”
• Curiosity box: you have a box in which things you’re interested in are, and when you face problems you open the box and think of associational solution

Networking

What Einstein said provides an implication on it:

“Somebody who only reads newspapers and at best books of contemporary authors looks to me like an extremely near-sighted person who scorns eyeglasses. He is completely dependent on the prejudices and fashions of his times, since he never gets to see or hear anything else. And what a person thinks on his own, without being stimulated by the thoughts and experiences of others, is even in the best cases rather paltry and monotonous. There are only a few enlightened people with a lucid mind and style and with good taste within a century. What has been preserved of their work belongs among the most precious possessions of mankind. We owe it to a few writers of antiquity (Plato, Aristotle, etc.) that the people in the Middle Ages could slowly extricate themselves from the superstitions and ignorance that had darkend life for more than half a millennium. Nothing is more needed to overcome the modernist’s snobbishness.”

Innovators are connected with people with various backgrounds or experiences many concepts, as Steve Jobs learned from Zen to invent apple's products. As mentioned before, the art of innovation comes from associating different concepts. If you want to be innovative, you’d better to have many “dots” to be connected in the future.

3. Experimenting: implementation

Innovators are good doers. Thomas Edison said “I haven’t failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that do not work”.

Innovative people try to prepare a prototype as soon as possible. Making prototypes first has many virtues; you can detect potential issues associated with the product, sense voice of the clients, and solicit creativities.

Another way of experimenting is taking things apart: disassemble, map out a process, de-construct an idea.

Those qualities are not product of genius, and you all can attain those qualities through practice.

Reference:　“Innovator’s DNA”, authored by Dyer, Gregersen and Christensen